The United States faces a wave of Omicron deaths in the coming weeks, according to forecasts

January 19, 2022 – COVID-19 deaths from the Omicron variant are on the rise and are likely to increase rapidly in the coming weeks, according to new forecasts.

According to national estimates, another 50,000 to 300,000 Americans could die until the current wave subsides in March.

“Many people will still die due to the extent of Omicron transmission,” Jason Salemi, PhD, an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida, told the Associated Press.

“Unfortunately, it will get worse before it gets better,” he said.

The average 7-day value for daily new deaths from COVID-19 has been rising since mid-November, reaching nearly 1,900 on Tuesday, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University. Moreover, deaths from COVID-19 began to increase among nursing home residents about two weeks ago, the AP reported.

Although the Omicron variant appears to cause milder disease, the large number of infections has led to more hospitalizations. If the higher end of the national forecast occurs, the total number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States could exceed 1 million by early spring.

“Overall, you’ll see more sick people, even if you as an individual are less likely to get sick,” Dr. Catriona Shea, an epidemiologist at Pennsylvania State University, told the AP.

Shea is co-leading a team that collects pandemic models through the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Center and shares forecasts with the White House. The forecast includes models from 11 universities across the country.

The upcoming wave of Omicron deaths will peak in early February, she said, and weekly deaths could exceed the Delta variant peak and the previous peak observed in January 2021.

The combined models predict 1.5 million COVID-19 hospitalizations and 191,000 COVID-19 deaths from mid-December to mid-March. But due to uncertainty in the models, deaths from the Omicron wave can range from 58,000 to 305,000.