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Taking into account the historical record, India is responsible for less than 5% of cumulative carbon emissions (the US accounts for 20%, more than any other country). “If someone wants to allocate fair carbon budgets, India will be seen as a real hero,” said Rahul Tonga, a senior fellow at the Center for Social and Economic Progress in New Delhi.
Nevertheless, Modi’s announcement came as a pleasant surprise to some researchers, said Ulka Kelkar, an economist and climate director at the World Resources Institute in India. The goals are “clear improvements” from previous goals, she says, and few expected a zero promise from India at this year’s conference.
The goal was “diplomatically necessary,” said Navroz Dubash, a professor at the Center for Political Studies in New Delhi. But he sees this mostly as a “box to be checked,” as all 10 leading issuers, with the exception of Iran and most other major economies, have made their own promises of zero net emissions.
What could be more consistent, he argues, are the intermediate goals outlined by Modi. In his speech, Modi promised that by 2030, India will have 500 gigawatts of electricity from carbon-free sources (including nuclear) and will receive 50% of its “energy needs” from renewable sources. And it is committed to reducing India’s total emissions by 1 billion metric tons and its carbon intensity (which compares emissions generated with electricity produced) by 45%, also by 2030.
The Indian government later clarified that the 50% target was for electricity. This means that it will not include, for example, most of the energy used in difficult decarbonising sectors such as transport. It is also about capacity, not generation. And there are likely to be fewer restrictions on coal than some researchers originally thought, Dubash explains.
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