The experiment: It is difficult to test the transmission in a laboratory, so this is an experiment that takes place in the real world. The researchers will use sequencing tests to track how many of the actual cases of covid-19 they see are due to omicron. If this percentage starts to grow and if such growth is observed in different countries, it will be a sign that the omicron is transmitted faster.
This was the case with the alpha variant, which appeared in the United Kingdom in 2020. Until December of the same year, it accounted for a growing share of British cases, and within a few months also dominated caseloads in the rest of Europe and the United States. . The alpha was later replaced by the delta. In both strains, alpha and delta, it took about four months from their introduction to account for most cases. If omicron follows suit, it will be the dominant strain until March or April 2021.
“When we see a replacement, it strongly suggests an advantage of the transmission,” says Teal. “But if it only happens in one place, it could be due to coincidence.” He says the rise of omicron in South Africa, in itself, does not prove whether the option is more transferable.
How soon: It can take a month or more to obtain hard evidence of higher transmittance. This is because it takes about five to six days for a newly infected person to develop enough virus to infect others. And to find out if omicron is transmitted faster, researchers will need to monitor multiple cycles of infection and spread.
Such research can be accelerated if researchers extend the timeline backwards by sequencing old samples. Doctors in Nigeria have already said they have found omicron in a bank sample of covid-19 in that country. This may suggest an early data point.
What next: Not only the SARS-CoV-2 virus is changing; as well as the human stage at which the pandemic is taking place. Omicron will face more diverse conditions than either option, including countries where almost everyone has been vaccinated, countries using different vaccines, places where most people have already had covid-19, and “zero covid” nations. such as China and New Zealand. This means that the omicron may persist in some areas but disappear in others.
eDoes omicron cause more severe disease?
worry: Initially, some South African doctors said the symptoms caused by the new version seemed milder, but then there were reports of more hospital beds being filled. Currently, no one knows whether omicron causes worse symptoms or not.
The problem is that omicron is so new that most cases are only a week or two away, while it often takes a few weeks until covid-19 causes severe problems or death. “It is too early to say anything about the severity of the disease. So far we can’t say anything, “said Christian Althaus, an epidemiologist in Bern.
The experiment: To measure the severity of the disease,, researchers can expose laboratory animals such as mice or monkeys to omicron, but the final answers will come from real human data, including medical observations, hospital records and deaths.
How soon: Whether omicron causes a worse disease or different symptoms is probably the question that will take the longest to answer – probably a few months.
With all the uncertainty surrounding omicron and the possibility that vaccines may not work as well, the researchers are reminding the public of tactics they say will stop the spread of any option, such as isolation, social distancing and wearing masks. “There’s no way these interventions won’t work,” Teale said.
He also says that the omicron is a sign of things to come. “It will be difficult in the coming months or years. There will be new options; we should expect that, “he said. “But stock markets do not have to react to all options in a frightened way. This is the future and we will have to deal with it. “